Gladiators and daggers drawn

By Steve Ovirih.

President Tinubu is famed as a master strategist.Fans, associates and Nigerians who are enamored of his political dexterity tag him ‘Jagaban of politics.’ He it was among the AD Governors who saw through the expansionist agenda of the then virile and politically focused ruling PDP of yore as led by Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, and he it was who warned fellow AD Governors, who primed themselves as progressives, to be wary of fostering any alliance with PDP that could create an underpinning threat for the regionally strong Alliance for Democracy. They ignored the Lagos Governor’s warning at their peril and were swept away by the PDP tsunami.

The incumbent President now faces a political paradox, a challenge not from outside the power corridor, but from within its precinct.

The ruling party over time has been long projected as a disciplined behemoth under the President’s firm grip and under the strong administrative influence of the party’s National Working Committee (NWC).What is unfolding in Imo and the Federal Capital Territory is no longer routine intra-party rivalry. It is a battle for survival, prestige and 2027 positioning and all the gladiators are ‘President’s men.’

At the centre of the storm is Governor Hope Uzodimma of Imo State.

Uzodimma, widely regarded as the President’s blue-eyed boy, is at the twilight of his second term. His next ambition is not in doubt : the Senate, and not merely as a floor member. The grapevine in Abuja whispers of a bigger prize: the Senate Presidency itself, currently occupied by Godswill Akpabio.Uzodimma eyes with strong hope a seat the gods have apparently reserved in the 11th Senate for the incumbent President of The Red Chamber.

The Governor was thought to have locked down the APC senatorial ticket in his zone. In fact, it was a given that the ticket sat comfy in his fat gubernatorial pocket.But on Thursday morning, the script flipped. A Federal High Court nullified his candidacy and declared his kinsman and predecessor, Senator Rochas Okorocha, as the authentic candidate of the party.

Okorocha, from the same Imo West Senatorial District, had long alleged that the primary was hijacked. The court has now handed him a loaded gun. Rochas has fat pocket, deep influence and had both been a sitting Governor and a sitting Senator. He is no doubt a less gladiator whose potency to shake a sitting Governor and Senator wannabe can be discarded.

Yet, Uzodimma’s travails are compounded by a second front, his long-simmering cold war with the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike.

Wike, except we want to fool ourselves, is The President’s most valuable outsider-inside gladiator in the polity. He has accused Uzodimma of meddling in the Rivers State crisis and covertly backing Governor Siminalayi Fubara. For Wike, politics is personal. He has reportedly vowed to block Uzodimma’s Senate bid at all costs, deploying a shadowy political vehicle known as the ‘Rainbow Coalition’ to do the hatchet job.

Then there is Senate President Godswill Akpabio.

Akpabio has been The President’s insurance policy in the Red Chamber. He is a strong ally of the Presidency and a bridge builder between the Executive and the Lawmakers, sometimes absorbing public scorn as too beholding to the Presidency. As a bridge builder, the Senate President makes it quite easy for executive bills to push through.If Uzodimma arrives in the Senate with a clear eye on his seat, the trust between the Villa and the National Assembly leadership could collapse.

This is the President’s checkmate and the subtle dilemma:

Scenario A. If the Presidency deploys federal might to rescue Uzodimma at the Court of Appeal, it risks losing Wike. And Wike is not a man who sulks quietly. When he withdraws, he detonates. Rivers, the FCT and the entire South-South political architecture that he holds apparently within his firm grip could slip.

Scenario B.If The Presidency is seen to back Uzodimma, Akpabio will feel betrayed. The Senate President has put in a lot to foster a mutual relationship between the Senate and the Executive and for the first time in a long while, the 10th Senate is adjudge one with most cordial relationship with the Presidency. It will be counterproductive that the seat most cherished by Akpabio is handed to an outsider who never contributed to the cordiality that has made the Senate/Presidency mutuality tick.

The irony is stark. None of the gladiators is willing to blink.

Uzodimma will not step down; he sees himself in Akpabio’s chair. It is called political covetousness and the constitution guarantees it: the right to vote and be voted for.
Wike will not step down:he sees betrayal that must be avenged, worst still, Wike doesn’t stomach betrayal.
Akpabio will not step down: he sees a throne under siege.
Okorocha will not step down because he now has a judgment to flaunt.

The opposition doesn’t look like a headache to the nation’s power structure, far from it. At least that is the posturing in the polity for now .The power equation seems to be fighting the very pillars that held up its beam.

The question echoing in the corridors of Power is no longer who will win Imo West. It is whether there will be adequate political dexterity to stop loyalists from burning down the house in their quest to inherit it.

In the next few days, as Hope’s lawyers head to the Court of Appeal and the Rainbow Coalition sharpens its knives, Nigerians will focus on the master strategist’s moves and how he navigates the political terrain to see who among these warring gladiators get his blessing.In our blend of Presidential Democracy, who gets the President’s blessing already has a very soft landing. And anyone among these daggers drawn gladiator who doesn’t get the President’s blessing is left in the cold; how such gladiators will react to that is left in the realm of conjecture.